主要内容：

　　12YUE21RIGUONEIDIANJIELVGUGANQIYEZHAOKAIZUOTANHUIYI，NIZAIWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEIZAIJIANCHAN80WANDUNDIANJIELVCHANNENG。HUIYIZUIZHONGZHIXINGQINGKUANGSHANGNANZHIXIAO，WOMENCHANGSHISHULIYIWANGDELIANHEJIANCHANFASHENGDESHIDIANJIXIAOGUO，BINGCHANGSHIJIEHEDANGQIANDEJIANCHANCHENGGUOPINGGU80WANDUNDEJIANLIANGRUOZHIXINGHUIRUHE。

　　主要结论：

　　➤1）梳理以往联合减产会议发现，行业主动减产往往发生在会议发布联合减产倡议之前，由市场调节产生，会议对产业发展的约束力有待商榷，具体参考2016年产能变动。

　　➤2）从目前公布的消息看，再做80万吨的减产，数量上是可观的，但是细节尚不清晰，由谁来减，多长时间内完成，仍需进一步的确认。

　　➤3）2018年单从减产规模看，确实产生了超300万吨的减产，但是并未在在产产能中得到充分的体现，目前在产产能较8月的高点减去50万吨，相比2008年、2015年铝价反转见底的去产能力度仍有一定差距。

　　一、12月21日骨干铝企再议联合减产

　　1.1事件

　　ANTAIKEFABUXIAOXI：2018NIAN12YUE21RI，ZHONGGUOYOUSEJINSHUGONGYEXIEHUIZAIGUANGXINANNINGZHAOKAIBUFENDIANJIELVGUGANQIYEZUOTANHUI，JIUDANGQIANGUONEIWAIYANGHUALV、DIANJIELVXINGYEXINGSHI，WEILAILVXIAOFEIFAZHANQUSHIDENGFANGMIANZHANKAIYANTAO。ZHONGLVJITUAN、ZHONGGUOHONGQIAO、XINFAJITUAN、HANGZHOUJINJIANGJITUAN、DONGFANGXIWANGDENG20JIAGUGANDIANJIELVQIYECANJIALEZUOTANHUI。BEIJINGANTAIKEXINXIGUFENYOUXIANGUOJIagGUANZHUANJIAYINGYAOZUOLELVSHICHANGYANJIUBAOGAO。

　　CANHUIDAIBIAOFANYING，DANGQIANGUONEILVJIAYIJINGCHUJIXINGYEPINGJUNXIANJINCHENGBENXIAN，QIYEJINGYINGYALIJIEJINJIXIAN，SHENZHICHAOGUO2015NIANSIJIDUZUICHASHUIPING。ZIERJIDUYILAI，BUFENQIYELUXUKAISHICAIQUDANXINGSHENGCHANCUOSHI，TEBIESHIXIABANNIANJIANCHANGUIMOJINYIBUKUODA。JUGUJI，JIEZHIMUQIANZHONGGUODIANJIELVGUANTINGCHANNENGYICHAOGUO320WANDUN/NIAN，QIZHONGYUE80%DEGUANTINGJIZHONGZAIXIABANNIAN，WEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEIGUONEINITINGCHANGUIMOHUOJIANGCHAOGUO80WANDUN/NIAN。

　　CANHUIQIYEDUI2019NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIPINGWENXIANGHAOCHONGMANXINXIN，DUIZHONGGUOLVXIAOFEIQIANJINGJIANDINGKANHAO。WEIBAOZHENGXINGYEPINGWENJIANKANGYUNXING，YUHUIDAIBIAOTICHUDIAOZHENGDIANJIELVJINCHUKOUZHENGCE、CHIXUKUODALVYINGYONG、YINGZAOGONGPINGHELIDEJINRONGXINDAIHUANJINGDENGJIANYI。

　　1.2盘面表现

　　HUIYIGONGGAODANGTIAN，HULVZHULI1902HEYUERINEIZOUSHIPIANQIANG，DANBINGWEIYOUXIAOXITIZHENLUDEFEICHANGGAODEZHANGFU，JIEZHIXIAWU14:25，HULV1902SHANGZHANG0.51%。KEYISHUOPANMIANDUIXIAOXIFANYINGXIANGDUILENGJING。

　　12YUEYILAI，LVJIACHUYUDIWEIZHENDANGZHUANGTAI，YIMIANSHIJINRU11-12YUE，DIANJIELVXINGYEJIANCHANDESHULIANGZAIZENGJIA，LINGYIMIANSHINIANMOXIAYOUSHENGCHANSHANGQIENENGWEICHI，BINGMEIYOUCHUXIANDUANYASHIWEISUO，QUKUCUNYIJIUZAIYANXU。DANSHIYOUYUTOUZIZHEDUI2019NIANJINGJIZENGLIANGJIDIANJIELVXIAOFEIQIANJINGBULEGUAN，ZUODUOYIYUANBINGBUQIANGLIE，SUOYI，LVJIAYIDIWEIZHENDANGDEZHUANGTAICHUXIAN。

　　21RIDEHUIYI，ZAIMUQIANJICHUSHANGZAIJIAN80WANDUN，JUEDUISHULIANGSHIFEICHANGKEGUANDE，DANSHICHANGDUICIFANYINGPINGDAN，WOMENYOUBIYAODUILINIANLIANHEJIANCHANQINGKUANGJIXIAOGUOZUOGESHULI。

　　二、以往产业联合会议的背景及效果

　　2.1以往铝企联合开会情况

　　ZHONGGUODIANJIELVFEISUFAZHANZHUANGDADETONGSHI，GONGYINGZENGSUCHAOGUOXIAOFEIZENGSUDEQINGKUANGSHIYOUFASHENG，LVJIAZHANGQIRUOSHI，XINGYEKUISUNZHANGSHIJIANCHIXUSHI，DUOYIYOUSEJINSHUXIEHUIZHAOJIXINGYEGUGANDIANJIELVQIYEZHAOKAIHUIYI，SHANGTAODUICE。WOMENSHULILEJINNIANLAIZHUYAODEJICIXINGYEHUIYI，BINGKANKANHUIYIHOUCHANYEDONGTAIDIAOZHENGDEQINGKUANGJIJIAGEBIAOGE。

　　2.2会议后的产业变动及价格表现

　　TONGGUOKAIHUISHIDIANQIANHOUXINGYECHANNENGBIANDONGJIJIAGEBIAOXIAN，LAIFENXILIANHEHUIYIDEBEIJINGJIXIAOGUO。

　　2008NIANJINRONGWEIJISHI，XINGYEFAQIDEYIGEYUEZHUJIANWANCHENG5-10%JIANCHANDEMUBIAO，CONGGUOJIATONGJIJUYUEDUDIANJIELVSHUJUKAN，HUIYIHOUYOUYULVJIADANBIANKUAISUXIADIE，KUISUNYIJIUDELVYELUXUGUANTINGCHANNENG，CHANLIANGZAI2019NIANYIJIDUDAODADIDIAN。

　　2015NIAN12YUE，XINGYELIANHEHUIYIFAQIDECHANGYIBAOKUOKUODADANXINGSHENGCHANGUIMO，XINZENGTOUCHANTUICHI1NIAN，SHENZHISHANGYISHANGYESHOUCHU，CHUANSHOUCHUGUIMODA100WANDUN。HUIYIZHIHOU，ZAICHANCHANNENGZAI12YUEJICHUSHANGZAIJIANSHAO20WANDUN，JIEDUANXINGCHANNENGJIANDI。HUIYIZHIQIAN，2011NIANLVJIAGAODIANGUOHOU，LVXINGYEJIUJINGLILECHANNENGKUAISUKUOZHANG，QIYEYINGLIMEIKUANGYUXIA，KUISUNFUDUHELIDUJIADADEJUMIAN，ZAIHUIYIZHIQIAN，XINGYEJIUYIJINGKAISHILEJIANCHAN，ZAICHANCHANNENGYOU2015NIAN7YUEDE3194WANDUNJIANDAO2016NIAN1YUE3016WANDUN，JIANQU178WANDUN，FUDU5.57%。

　　ZHIDEZHUYI2DIAN，XINGYELIANHEJIANCHANHUIYIFASHENGZAICHANNENGDIAOZHENGZHIHOU，CHANNENGDIAOZHENGGENGDUOSHIYOUXINGYELIRUNQUDONGDESHICHANGXINGWEI；SHUOHAODETUICHIXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANG1NIANYISHANG，SHIJISHANG2016NIAN5YUEJIUKAISHILEXINYILUNDECHANNENGTOUFANG，YINGLIQINGKUANGXIA，CENGJINGDENEIXIEYUEDINGYIJINGBUNEIMEZHONGYAO。

　　RUGUODANCONGJIANCHANDEGUIMODEKAN，CONG2018NIANNIANCHUYILAIQUESHILEIJIJIANCHANGUIMOCHAO300WANDUN，DANSHIHAIXUYAOKANDAO3YUEZHIHOUFUCHANJIHUANMANDANYIZHIZAITUIJINDEXINZENGTOUCHAN。7YUEYILAI，GUONEIDIANJIELVXINGYEYIJINGKAISHILEBUTONGCHENGDUDEJIANCHAN，11-12YUEJIANCHANGUIMOFANGDA（XIANGJIANNIANDUBAOGAO），DANSHIYOUYUXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANGXISHILEBUFENJIANCHANXIAOGUO，GUONEIZAICHANCHANNENGCONG2018NIAN8YUEGAODIAN3756.7WANDUNDAO11YUEDIDIAN3704.5WANDUN，JIANQU52.2WANDUN，FUDU1.39%，JIAO2015JI2008YOUCHAJU。RUO80WANDUNJIANLIANGNENGGOUDUIXIAN，JIANGHUISHIXIAN80WANDUN52.2WANDUN=132.2WANDUN，YUE3.52%DEYIGEJIANLIANG，SUOJIANFANGLIANGHUIJILVSHIJILVJIADAILAIFEICHANGDADEGAIGUAN。

　　RUGUODANCONGJIANCHANDEGUIMODEKAN，CONG2018NIANNIANCHUYILAIQUESHILEIJIJIANCHANGUIMOCHAO300WANDUN，DANSHIHAIXUYAOKANDAO3YUEZHIHOUFUCHANJIHUANMANDANYIZHIZAITUIJINDEXINZENGTOUCHAN。7YUEYILAI，GUONEIDIANJIELVXINGYEYIJINGKAISHILEBUTONGCHENGDUDEJIANCHAN，11-12YUEJIANCHANGUIMOFANGDA（XIANGJIANNIANDUBAOGAO），DANSHIYOUYUXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANGXISHILEBUFENJIANCHANXIAOGUO，GUONEIZAICHANCHANNENGCONG2018NIAN8YUEGAODIAN3756.7WANDUNDAO11YUEDIDIAN3704.5WANDUN，JIANQU52.2WANDUN，FUDU1.39%，JIAO2015JI2008YOUCHAJU。RUO80WANDUNJIANLIANGNENGGOUDUIXIAN，JIANGHUISHIXIAN80WANDUN52.2WANDUN=132.2WANDUN，YUE3.52%DEYIGEJIANLIANG，SUOJIANFANGLIANGHUIJILVSHIJILVJIADAILAIFEICHANGDADEGAIGUAN。

　　三、小结

　　➤1）梳理以往联合减产会议发现，行业主动减产往往发生在会议发布联合减产倡议之前，由市场调节产生，会议对产业发展的约束力有待商榷，具体参考2016年产能变动。

　　➤2）从目前公布的消息看，再做80万吨的减产，数量上是可观的，但是细节尚不清晰，由谁来减，多长时间内完成，仍需进一步的确认。

　　➤3）2018年但从减产规模看，确实产生了超300万吨的减产，但是并未在在产产能中得到充分的体现，目前在产产能较8月的高点减去50万吨，相比2008年、2015年铝价反转见底的去产能力度仍有一定差距。