报告摘要
主要内容:
12YUE21RIGUONEIDIANJIELVGUGANQIYEZHAOKAIZUOTANHUIYI,NIZAIWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEIZAIJIANCHAN80WANDUNDIANJIELVCHANNENG。HUIYIZUIZHONGZHIXINGQINGKUANGSHANGNANZHIXIAO,WOMENCHANGSHISHULIYIWANGDELIANHEJIANCHANFASHENGDESHIDIANJIXIAOGUO,BINGCHANGSHIJIEHEDANGQIANDEJIANCHANCHENGGUOPINGGU80WANDUNDEJIANLIANGRUOZHIXINGHUIRUHE。
主要结论:
➤1)梳理以往联合减产会议发现,行业主动减产往往发生在会议发布联合减产倡议之前,由市场调节产生,会议对产业发展的约束力有待商榷,具体参考2016年产能变动。
➤2)从目前公布的消息看,再做80万吨的减产,数量上是可观的,但是细节尚不清晰,由谁来减,多长时间内完成,仍需进一步的确认。
➤3)2018年单从减产规模看,确实产生了超300万吨的减产,但是并未在在产产能中得到充分的体现,目前在产产能较8月的高点减去50万吨,相比2008年、2015年铝价反转见底的去产能力度仍有一定差距。
一、12月21日骨干铝企再议联合减产
1.1事件
ANTAIKEFABUXIAOXI:2018NIAN12YUE21RI,ZHONGGUOYOUSEJINSHUGONGYEXIEHUIZAIGUANGXINANNINGZHAOKAIBUFENDIANJIELVGUGANQIYEZUOTANHUI,JIUDANGQIANGUONEIWAIYANGHUALV、DIANJIELVXINGYEXINGSHI,WEILAILVXIAOFEIFAZHANQUSHIDENGFANGMIANZHANKAIYANTAO。ZHONGLVJITUAN、ZHONGGUOHONGQIAO、XINFAJITUAN、HANGZHOUJINJIANGJITUAN、DONGFANGXIWANGDENG20JIAGUGANDIANJIELVQIYECANJIALEZUOTANHUI。BEIJINGANTAIKEXINXIGUFENYOUXIANGUOJIagGUANZHUANJIAYINGYAOZUOLELVSHICHANGYANJIUBAOGAO。
CANHUIDAIBIAOFANYING,DANGQIANGUONEILVJIAYIJINGCHUJIXINGYEPINGJUNXIANJINCHENGBENXIAN,QIYEJINGYINGYALIJIEJINJIXIAN,SHENZHICHAOGUO2015NIANSIJIDUZUICHASHUIPING。ZIERJIDUYILAI,BUFENQIYELUXUKAISHICAIQUDANXINGSHENGCHANCUOSHI,TEBIESHIXIABANNIANJIANCHANGUIMOJINYIBUKUODA。JUGUJI,JIEZHIMUQIANZHONGGUODIANJIELVGUANTINGCHANNENGYICHAOGUO320WANDUN/NIAN,QIZHONGYUE80%DEGUANTINGJIZHONGZAIXIABANNIAN,WEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEIGUONEINITINGCHANGUIMOHUOJIANGCHAOGUO80WANDUN/NIAN。
CANHUIQIYEDUI2019NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIPINGWENXIANGHAOCHONGMANXINXIN,DUIZHONGGUOLVXIAOFEIQIANJINGJIANDINGKANHAO。WEIBAOZHENGXINGYEPINGWENJIANKANGYUNXING,YUHUIDAIBIAOTICHUDIAOZHENGDIANJIELVJINCHUKOUZHENGCE、CHIXUKUODALVYINGYONG、YINGZAOGONGPINGHELIDEJINRONGXINDAIHUANJINGDENGJIANYI。
1.2盘面表现
HUIYIGONGGAODANGTIAN,HULVZHULI1902HEYUERINEIZOUSHIPIANQIANG,DANBINGWEIYOUXIAOXITIZHENLUDEFEICHANGGAODEZHANGFU,JIEZHIXIAWU14:25,HULV1902SHANGZHANG0.51%。KEYISHUOPANMIANDUIXIAOXIFANYINGXIANGDUILENGJING。
12YUEYILAI,LVJIACHUYUDIWEIZHENDANGZHUANGTAI,YIMIANSHIJINRU11-12YUE,DIANJIELVXINGYEJIANCHANDESHULIANGZAIZENGJIA,LINGYIMIANSHINIANMOXIAYOUSHENGCHANSHANGQIENENGWEICHI,BINGMEIYOUCHUXIANDUANYASHIWEISUO,QUKUCUNYIJIUZAIYANXU。DANSHIYOUYUTOUZIZHEDUI2019NIANJINGJIZENGLIANGJIDIANJIELVXIAOFEIQIANJINGBULEGUAN,ZUODUOYIYUANBINGBUQIANGLIE,SUOYI,LVJIAYIDIWEIZHENDANGDEZHUANGTAICHUXIAN。
21RIDEHUIYI,ZAIMUQIANJICHUSHANGZAIJIAN80WANDUN,JUEDUISHULIANGSHIFEICHANGKEGUANDE,DANSHICHANGDUICIFANYINGPINGDAN,WOMENYOUBIYAODUILINIANLIANHEJIANCHANQINGKUANGJIXIAOGUOZUOGESHULI。
二、以往产业联合会议的背景及效果
2.1以往铝企联合开会情况
ZHONGGUODIANJIELVFEISUFAZHANZHUANGDADETONGSHI,GONGYINGZENGSUCHAOGUOXIAOFEIZENGSUDEQINGKUANGSHIYOUFASHENG,LVJIAZHANGQIRUOSHI,XINGYEKUISUNZHANGSHIJIANCHIXUSHI,DUOYIYOUSEJINSHUXIEHUIZHAOJIXINGYEGUGANDIANJIELVQIYEZHAOKAIHUIYI,SHANGTAODUICE。WOMENSHULILEJINNIANLAIZHUYAODEJICIXINGYEHUIYI,BINGKANKANHUIYIHOUCHANYEDONGTAIDIAOZHENGDEQINGKUANGJIJIAGEBIAOGE。
2.2会议后的产业变动及价格表现
TONGGUOKAIHUISHIDIANQIANHOUXINGYECHANNENGBIANDONGJIJIAGEBIAOXIAN,LAIFENXILIANHEHUIYIDEBEIJINGJIXIAOGUO。
2008NIANJINRONGWEIJISHI,XINGYEFAQIDEYIGEYUEZHUJIANWANCHENG5-10%JIANCHANDEMUBIAO,CONGGUOJIATONGJIJUYUEDUDIANJIELVSHUJUKAN,HUIYIHOUYOUYULVJIADANBIANKUAISUXIADIE,KUISUNYIJIUDELVYELUXUGUANTINGCHANNENG,CHANLIANGZAI2019NIANYIJIDUDAODADIDIAN。
2015NIAN12YUE,XINGYELIANHEHUIYIFAQIDECHANGYIBAOKUOKUODADANXINGSHENGCHANGUIMO,XINZENGTOUCHANTUICHI1NIAN,SHENZHISHANGYISHANGYESHOUCHU,CHUANSHOUCHUGUIMODA100WANDUN。HUIYIZHIHOU,ZAICHANCHANNENGZAI12YUEJICHUSHANGZAIJIANSHAO20WANDUN,JIEDUANXINGCHANNENGJIANDI。HUIYIZHIQIAN,2011NIANLVJIAGAODIANGUOHOU,LVXINGYEJIUJINGLILECHANNENGKUAISUKUOZHANG,QIYEYINGLIMEIKUANGYUXIA,KUISUNFUDUHELIDUJIADADEJUMIAN,ZAIHUIYIZHIQIAN,XINGYEJIUYIJINGKAISHILEJIANCHAN,ZAICHANCHANNENGYOU2015NIAN7YUEDE3194WANDUNJIANDAO2016NIAN1YUE3016WANDUN,JIANQU178WANDUN,FUDU5.57%。
ZHIDEZHUYI2DIAN,XINGYELIANHEJIANCHANHUIYIFASHENGZAICHANNENGDIAOZHENGZHIHOU,CHANNENGDIAOZHENGGENGDUOSHIYOUXINGYELIRUNQUDONGDESHICHANGXINGWEI;SHUOHAODETUICHIXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANG1NIANYISHANG,SHIJISHANG2016NIAN5YUEJIUKAISHILEXINYILUNDECHANNENGTOUFANG,YINGLIQINGKUANGXIA,CENGJINGDENEIXIEYUEDINGYIJINGBUNEIMEZHONGYAO。
RUGUODANCONGJIANCHANDEGUIMODEKAN,CONG2018NIANNIANCHUYILAIQUESHILEIJIJIANCHANGUIMOCHAO300WANDUN,DANSHIHAIXUYAOKANDAO3YUEZHIHOUFUCHANJIHUANMANDANYIZHIZAITUIJINDEXINZENGTOUCHAN。7YUEYILAI,GUONEIDIANJIELVXINGYEYIJINGKAISHILEBUTONGCHENGDUDEJIANCHAN,11-12YUEJIANCHANGUIMOFANGDA(XIANGJIANNIANDUBAOGAO),DANSHIYOUYUXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANGXISHILEBUFENJIANCHANXIAOGUO,GUONEIZAICHANCHANNENGCONG2018NIAN8YUEGAODIAN3756.7WANDUNDAO11YUEDIDIAN3704.5WANDUN,JIANQU52.2WANDUN,FUDU1.39%,JIAO2015JI2008YOUCHAJU。RUO80WANDUNJIANLIANGNENGGOUDUIXIAN,JIANGHUISHIXIAN80WANDUN52.2WANDUN=132.2WANDUN,YUE3.52%DEYIGEJIANLIANG,SUOJIANFANGLIANGHUIJILVSHIJILVJIADAILAIFEICHANGDADEGAIGUAN。
RUGUODANCONGJIANCHANDEGUIMODEKAN,CONG2018NIANNIANCHUYILAIQUESHILEIJIJIANCHANGUIMOCHAO300WANDUN,DANSHIHAIXUYAOKANDAO3YUEZHIHOUFUCHANJIHUANMANDANYIZHIZAITUIJINDEXINZENGTOUCHAN。7YUEYILAI,GUONEIDIANJIELVXINGYEYIJINGKAISHILEBUTONGCHENGDUDEJIANCHAN,11-12YUEJIANCHANGUIMOFANGDA(XIANGJIANNIANDUBAOGAO),DANSHIYOUYUXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANGXISHILEBUFENJIANCHANXIAOGUO,GUONEIZAICHANCHANNENGCONG2018NIAN8YUEGAODIAN3756.7WANDUNDAO11YUEDIDIAN3704.5WANDUN,JIANQU52.2WANDUN,FUDU1.39%,JIAO2015JI2008YOUCHAJU。RUO80WANDUNJIANLIANGNENGGOUDUIXIAN,JIANGHUISHIXIAN80WANDUN52.2WANDUN=132.2WANDUN,YUE3.52%DEYIGEJIANLIANG,SUOJIANFANGLIANGHUIJILVSHIJILVJIADAILAIFEICHANGDADEGAIGUAN。
三、小结
➤1)梳理以往联合减产会议发现,行业主动减产往往发生在会议发布联合减产倡议之前,由市场调节产生,会议对产业发展的约束力有待商榷,具体参考2016年产能变动。
➤2)从目前公布的消息看,再做80万吨的减产,数量上是可观的,但是细节尚不清晰,由谁来减,多长时间内完成,仍需进一步的确认。
➤3)2018年但从减产规模看,确实产生了超300万吨的减产,但是并未在在产产能中得到充分的体现,目前在产产能较8月的高点减去50万吨,相比2008年、2015年铝价反转见底的去产能力度仍有一定差距。