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网站国际ag馆 >> 联合减产80万吨电解铝产能有何影响

联合减产80万吨电解铝产能有何影响

日期:2018/28/12


报告摘要 

 

  主要内容:


  12YUE21RIGUONEIDIANJIELVGUGANQIYEZHAOKAIZUOTANHUIYI,NIZAIWEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEIZAIJIANCHAN80WANDUNDIANJIELVCHANNENG。HUIYIZUIZHONGZHIXINGQINGKUANGSHANGNANZHIXIAO,WOMENCHANGSHISHULIYIWANGDELIANHEJIANCHANFASHENGDESHIDIANJIXIAOGUO,BINGCHANGSHIJIEHEDANGQIANDEJIANCHANCHENGGUOPINGGU80WANDUNDEJIANLIANGRUOZHIXINGHUIRUHE。


  主要结论:


  1)梳理以往联合减产会议发现,行业主动减产往往发生在会议发布联合减产倡议之前,由市场调节产生,会议对产业发展的约束力有待商榷,具体参考2016年产能变动。


  2)从目前公布的消息看,再做80万吨的减产,数量上是可观的,但是细节尚不清晰,由谁来减,多长时间内完成,仍需进一步的确认。


  3)2018年单从减产规模看,确实产生了超300万吨的减产,但是并未在在产产能中得到充分的体现,目前在产产能较8月的高点减去50万吨,相比2008年、2015年铝价反转见底的去产能力度仍有一定差距。


  一、12月21日骨干铝企再议联合减产


  1.1事件


  ANTAIKEFABUXIAOXI:2018NIAN12YUE21RI,ZHONGGUOYOUSEJINSHUGONGYEXIEHUIZAIGUANGXINANNINGZHAOKAIBUFENDIANJIELVGUGANQIYEZUOTANHUI,JIUDANGQIANGUONEIWAIYANGHUALV、DIANJIELVXINGYEXINGSHI,WEILAILVXIAOFEIFAZHANQUSHIDENGFANGMIANZHANKAIYANTAO。ZHONGLVJITUAN、ZHONGGUOHONGQIAO、XINFAJITUAN、HANGZHOUJINJIANGJITUAN、DONGFANGXIWANGDENG20JIAGUGANDIANJIELVQIYECANJIALEZUOTANHUI。BEIJINGANTAIKEXINXIGUFENYOUXIANGUOJIagGUANZHUANJIAYINGYAOZUOLELVSHICHANGYANJIUBAOGAO。


  CANHUIDAIBIAOFANYING,DANGQIANGUONEILVJIAYIJINGCHUJIXINGYEPINGJUNXIANJINCHENGBENXIAN,QIYEJINGYINGYALIJIEJINJIXIAN,SHENZHICHAOGUO2015NIANSIJIDUZUICHASHUIPING。ZIERJIDUYILAI,BUFENQIYELUXUKAISHICAIQUDANXINGSHENGCHANCUOSHI,TEBIESHIXIABANNIANJIANCHANGUIMOJINYIBUKUODA。JUGUJI,JIEZHIMUQIANZHONGGUODIANJIELVGUANTINGCHANNENGYICHAOGUO320WANDUN/NIAN,QIZHONGYUE80%DEGUANTINGJIZHONGZAIXIABANNIAN,WEILAIYIDUANSHIJIANNEIGUONEINITINGCHANGUIMOHUOJIANGCHAOGUO80WANDUN/NIAN。


  CANHUIQIYEDUI2019NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIPINGWENXIANGHAOCHONGMANXINXIN,DUIZHONGGUOLVXIAOFEIQIANJINGJIANDINGKANHAO。WEIBAOZHENGXINGYEPINGWENJIANKANGYUNXING,YUHUIDAIBIAOTICHUDIAOZHENGDIANJIELVJINCHUKOUZHENGCE、CHIXUKUODALVYINGYONG、YINGZAOGONGPINGHELIDEJINRONGXINDAIHUANJINGDENGJIANYI。


  1.2盘面表现


  HUIYIGONGGAODANGTIAN,HULVZHULI1902HEYUERINEIZOUSHIPIANQIANG,DANBINGWEIYOUXIAOXITIZHENLUDEFEICHANGGAODEZHANGFU,JIEZHIXIAWU14:25,HULV1902SHANGZHANG0.51%。KEYISHUOPANMIANDUIXIAOXIFANYINGXIANGDUILENGJING。


  12YUEYILAI,LVJIACHUYUDIWEIZHENDANGZHUANGTAI,YIMIANSHIJINRU11-12YUE,DIANJIELVXINGYEJIANCHANDESHULIANGZAIZENGJIA,LINGYIMIANSHINIANMOXIAYOUSHENGCHANSHANGQIENENGWEICHI,BINGMEIYOUCHUXIANDUANYASHIWEISUO,QUKUCUNYIJIUZAIYANXU。DANSHIYOUYUTOUZIZHEDUI2019NIANJINGJIZENGLIANGJIDIANJIELVXIAOFEIQIANJINGBULEGUAN,ZUODUOYIYUANBINGBUQIANGLIE,SUOYI,LVJIAYIDIWEIZHENDANGDEZHUANGTAICHUXIAN。


  21RIDEHUIYI,ZAIMUQIANJICHUSHANGZAIJIAN80WANDUN,JUEDUISHULIANGSHIFEICHANGKEGUANDE,DANSHICHANGDUICIFANYINGPINGDAN,WOMENYOUBIYAODUILINIANLIANHEJIANCHANQINGKUANGJIXIAOGUOZUOGESHULI。


  二、以往产业联合会议的背景及效果


  2.1以往铝企联合开会情况


  ZHONGGUODIANJIELVFEISUFAZHANZHUANGDADETONGSHI,GONGYINGZENGSUCHAOGUOXIAOFEIZENGSUDEQINGKUANGSHIYOUFASHENG,LVJIAZHANGQIRUOSHI,XINGYEKUISUNZHANGSHIJIANCHIXUSHI,DUOYIYOUSEJINSHUXIEHUIZHAOJIXINGYEGUGANDIANJIELVQIYEZHAOKAIHUIYI,SHANGTAODUICE。WOMENSHULILEJINNIANLAIZHUYAODEJICIXINGYEHUIYI,BINGKANKANHUIYIHOUCHANYEDONGTAIDIAOZHENGDEQINGKUANGJIJIAGEBIAOGE。


  2.2会议后的产业变动及价格表现


  TONGGUOKAIHUISHIDIANQIANHOUXINGYECHANNENGBIANDONGJIJIAGEBIAOXIAN,LAIFENXILIANHEHUIYIDEBEIJINGJIXIAOGUO。


  2008NIANJINRONGWEIJISHI,XINGYEFAQIDEYIGEYUEZHUJIANWANCHENG5-10%JIANCHANDEMUBIAO,CONGGUOJIATONGJIJUYUEDUDIANJIELVSHUJUKAN,HUIYIHOUYOUYULVJIADANBIANKUAISUXIADIE,KUISUNYIJIUDELVYELUXUGUANTINGCHANNENG,CHANLIANGZAI2019NIANYIJIDUDAODADIDIAN。


  2015NIAN12YUE,XINGYELIANHEHUIYIFAQIDECHANGYIBAOKUOKUODADANXINGSHENGCHANGUIMO,XINZENGTOUCHANTUICHI1NIAN,SHENZHISHANGYISHANGYESHOUCHU,CHUANSHOUCHUGUIMODA100WANDUN。HUIYIZHIHOU,ZAICHANCHANNENGZAI12YUEJICHUSHANGZAIJIANSHAO20WANDUN,JIEDUANXINGCHANNENGJIANDI。HUIYIZHIQIAN,2011NIANLVJIAGAODIANGUOHOU,LVXINGYEJIUJINGLILECHANNENGKUAISUKUOZHANG,QIYEYINGLIMEIKUANGYUXIA,KUISUNFUDUHELIDUJIADADEJUMIAN,ZAIHUIYIZHIQIAN,XINGYEJIUYIJINGKAISHILEJIANCHAN,ZAICHANCHANNENGYOU2015NIAN7YUEDE3194WANDUNJIANDAO2016NIAN1YUE3016WANDUN,JIANQU178WANDUN,FUDU5.57%。


  ZHIDEZHUYI2DIAN,XINGYELIANHEJIANCHANHUIYIFASHENGZAICHANNENGDIAOZHENGZHIHOU,CHANNENGDIAOZHENGGENGDUOSHIYOUXINGYELIRUNQUDONGDESHICHANGXINGWEI;SHUOHAODETUICHIXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANG1NIANYISHANG,SHIJISHANG2016NIAN5YUEJIUKAISHILEXINYILUNDECHANNENGTOUFANG,YINGLIQINGKUANGXIA,CENGJINGDENEIXIEYUEDINGYIJINGBUNEIMEZHONGYAO。


  RUGUODANCONGJIANCHANDEGUIMODEKAN,CONG2018NIANNIANCHUYILAIQUESHILEIJIJIANCHANGUIMOCHAO300WANDUN,DANSHIHAIXUYAOKANDAO3YUEZHIHOUFUCHANJIHUANMANDANYIZHIZAITUIJINDEXINZENGTOUCHAN。7YUEYILAI,GUONEIDIANJIELVXINGYEYIJINGKAISHILEBUTONGCHENGDUDEJIANCHAN,11-12YUEJIANCHANGUIMOFANGDA(XIANGJIANNIANDUBAOGAO),DANSHIYOUYUXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANGXISHILEBUFENJIANCHANXIAOGUO,GUONEIZAICHANCHANNENGCONG2018NIAN8YUEGAODIAN3756.7WANDUNDAO11YUEDIDIAN3704.5WANDUN,JIANQU52.2WANDUN,FUDU1.39%,JIAO2015JI2008YOUCHAJU。RUO80WANDUNJIANLIANGNENGGOUDUIXIAN,JIANGHUISHIXIAN80WANDUN52.2WANDUN=132.2WANDUN,YUE3.52%DEYIGEJIANLIANG,SUOJIANFANGLIANGHUIJILVSHIJILVJIADAILAIFEICHANGDADEGAIGUAN。


  RUGUODANCONGJIANCHANDEGUIMODEKAN,CONG2018NIANNIANCHUYILAIQUESHILEIJIJIANCHANGUIMOCHAO300WANDUN,DANSHIHAIXUYAOKANDAO3YUEZHIHOUFUCHANJIHUANMANDANYIZHIZAITUIJINDEXINZENGTOUCHAN。7YUEYILAI,GUONEIDIANJIELVXINGYEYIJINGKAISHILEBUTONGCHENGDUDEJIANCHAN,11-12YUEJIANCHANGUIMOFANGDA(XIANGJIANNIANDUBAOGAO),DANSHIYOUYUXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANGXISHILEBUFENJIANCHANXIAOGUO,GUONEIZAICHANCHANNENGCONG2018NIAN8YUEGAODIAN3756.7WANDUNDAO11YUEDIDIAN3704.5WANDUN,JIANQU52.2WANDUN,FUDU1.39%,JIAO2015JI2008YOUCHAJU。RUO80WANDUNJIANLIANGNENGGOUDUIXIAN,JIANGHUISHIXIAN80WANDUN52.2WANDUN=132.2WANDUN,YUE3.52%DEYIGEJIANLIANG,SUOJIANFANGLIANGHUIJILVSHIJILVJIADAILAIFEICHANGDADEGAIGUAN。


  三、小结


  1)梳理以往联合减产会议发现,行业主动减产往往发生在会议发布联合减产倡议之前,由市场调节产生,会议对产业发展的约束力有待商榷,具体参考2016年产能变动。


  2)从目前公布的消息看,再做80万吨的减产,数量上是可观的,但是细节尚不清晰,由谁来减,多长时间内完成,仍需进一步的确认。


  3)2018年但从减产规模看,确实产生了超300万吨的减产,但是并未在在产产能中得到充分的体现,目前在产产能较8月的高点减去50万吨,相比2008年、2015年铝价反转见底的去产能力度仍有一定差距。


来源:中信期货
编辑:铝道网